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Dearer diesel

Estimated effects of a 10ct/l increase in diesel fuel duty

In this study, carried out at the request of Friends of the Earth-Netherlands (Milieudefensie), we calculated the effects of an annual rise of 3.33 ct/l in diesel fuel duty over the period 2005-2007, i.e. a total increase of 10 ct/l. The study estimates the effects on the CO2 and NOX emissions of the road vehicle fleet, on government revenues and on the fuel mix. There is specific focus on the impact on high-mileage passenger cars and freight vehicles, and a rough-and-ready estimate of how such a increase would affect congestion. Among the conclusions are that the increase in diesel duty would reduce CO2 and NOX emissions by 0.5 ± 0.3 Mtonne and 4.9 ± 1.8 ktonne, respectively, in 2010. Government revenues would increase by an projected € 160 - 350 million in 2010. Milieudefensie has used the results of this study for the background report for their ‘Dirty Diesel Duurder!’ campaign.


Bettina Kampman

Delft, April 2004

Study in Dutch language

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