This study presents a probable timeline for introduction of a Nitrogen Emission Control Area (NECA) in the Baltic Sea, North Sea and English Channel and an NOx emission projection based on the introduction date, comparing this with a scenario without a Northern European NECA. Alternative policy instruments for reducing shipping NOx emissions are discussed in a comparative analysis, including expected NOx cuts and cost estimates. The likely outcome of the Baltic Sea and North Sea NECA negotiations is assessed, along with the estimated timeline of the most probable outcome.
This study was conducted for Transport & Environment by IVL, the Swedish Environmental Research Institute, and CE Delft. IVL was responsible for calculating NOx emissions in the European seas and describing the technical characteristics and expected costs of the abatement options investigated, CE Delft for the geopolitical analysis and the cost-benefit analysis.