On 8 November 2017 the European Commission presented their proposal for the post-2020 CO2 regulations for cars and vans. One of the inputs for this was this in-depth study on the design options of these regulations , carried out for the European Commission by a consortium of CE Delft, TNO and Cambridge Econometrics. In this study the pros and cons of design choices for the new regulations were assessed in detail on their well-to-wheel CO2 emissions, cost and the competitiveness of the EU automotive industry. All together 9,600 policy variants were assessed of which four in more detail on a broad range of impacts.
The study shows net financial societal cost savings over the entire vehicle lifetime, both in 2025 and 2030. The societal benefits were found to increase when the design of the regulations would be improved. These benefits are the result of the energy cost savings which more than compansate for the increase in manufacturing costs. The highest cost savings were found for the most stringent targets. The study also concludes that the impacts on the competitive position of the EU automotive sector are expected to be very small. Furthermore, GDP, employment, consumption and investments are all expected to increase.
The study highlights that the increasing gap between type approval and real world emissions requires attention as it significantly reduces the effectiveness of the current regulations. This could be solved by requiring additional measurements of CO2 emissions, e.g. based either on road tests or data from the engine control units of on-road vehicles.
The studies recommends that mandatory shares of zero emission vehicles like battery electric vehicles, as already in force in California, could be considered for accelarating innovation and the transition towards zero emission vehicles.