Competitiveness issues for Dutch aviation from EU ETS

This report analyses the impact of aviation’s inclusion in the EU ETS on the competitiveness of EU airlines. It specifically addresses the risk of carbon leakage due to auctioning of allowances.

The main findings are:

• Airlines are unlikely to reap windfall profits from the inclusion in the EU ETS.
• All airlines are likely to be able to pass on the costs associated with emissions trading to their customers in most markets.
• Consequently, the competitiveness of EU airlines is unlikely to change in these markets.
• However, on long haul routes where an alternative routing via a non-EU hub exists, not all the costs may be passed through.
• Consequently, on these markets EU airlines may see their competitiveness deteriorate as levels of auctioning or allowances prices increase.
• For Dutch aviation, the cost price increase of full auctioning is 2.5%.
• At least 80% of this increase can be passed through to consumers.