Stay Grounded has commissioned CE Delft to calculate remaining carbon budgets for European aviation and to estimate the effects of a European Frequent Flying Levy (FFL). The budgets are derived from the latest IPCC budgets and the FFL effects are modelled with the European aviation model AERO-MS. The analysis shows that a substantial reduction of aviation on the short term is necessary to align the sector with the goals of the Paris Agreement. A FFL can contribute significantly to the required reduction of demand by applying the polluters pay principle.
The proposed levy is applied for all departing passengers in all 30 countries of the European Economic Area (EEA) and the UK. The levy is charged per individual flight and has a zero rate for the first return flight per year and an incremental increase every second flight (€ 50 for flight 3 and 4, € 100 for flight 5 and 6, € 200 for flight 7 and 8, € 400 for 9 and more flights) in combination with surcharges for first/business class (€ 100), medium-haul (€ 50) and long-haul flights (€ 100) per individual flight. The levy leads to a significant reduction in demand and additional annual tax revenues of € 63 billion, assuming that the FFL replaces national ticket taxes. Due to this policy the number of passengers at European airports is estimated to reduce by 25.8% and CO2 emissions by 21.1% compared to the baseline.