In this study, commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management, we explored two policy questions related to emission reduction targets for aviation in the Netherlands.
The first question is about the possibilities to safeguard the existing emission reduction targets from the Aviation Policy Memorandum (Luchtvaartnota 2020-2050) by including aviation into the Dutch Climate Law. We identified several policy options to do so and assessed their consequences, opportunities and risks. We found that for all policy options, including the emission reduction targets for aviation into the Climate Law in itself would not be sufficient to safeguard these targets, but should be complemented by other instruments to mitigate emissions. Still, compared to the current situation where the targets are not legally enshrined, including them in the Climate Law offers the advantage that aviation would become an integral part of the climate policy cycle and hence would play a larger role in climate policy than is currently the case. Other opportunities and risks we identified involve, among other things, stakeholder positions and the consequences for other sectors’ climate targets as well as the volumes of carbon removal needed to comply with the targets in the Climate Law.
The second question relates to the Long-Term Aspirational Goal (LTAG) for international aviation, which was adopted by ICAO in 2022. LTAG involves a global net-zero carbon emissions target for international aviation by 2050 in support of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement’s temperature goal. It does not translate into national targets, but by making use of three different scenarios on the deployment of various mitigation measures, as well as assumptions on the share of global aviation emissions to be allocated to the Netherlands, we were able to compare the Dutch share of LTAG and the current Dutch emission reduction targets for aviation. We conclude that the targets from the Aviation Policy Memorandum are largely comparable to the most ambitious scenario used. However, until 2050 the cumulative emissions that comply with the targets of the Aviation Policy Memorandum (281 Mt CO2) are still 16% higher than the 243 Mt CO2 allowed for in this scenario.