Growth projections for energy-intensive industry. Reference scenarios for climate policy impact analysis

The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) regularly publishes studies on current and future energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, the most important of which is the annual Climate and Energy Outlook. For forward-looking scenario studies, assumptions need to be made about growth projections for the various industrial sectors.

PBL asked CE Delft to perform a new study making economic projections through to 2040 of 21 energy-intensive sectors of Dutch industry, including physical production of 24 specific products in these sectors. The economic projections are reported in terms of:

  • production value (turnover)
  • added value
  • kg or litres (physical production).

While use was made of economic models, the study as a whole is not a modelling study. This is because there are currently no economic models describing the interaction between global economic trends and the costs of the climate/energy transition on required sectoral structure. This study therefore combines several research methods to arrive at a likely picture of future Dutch industrial configuration.