Heat supply potential. Trends in number of heat connections as a function of energy tax on natural gas

Under a Draft Climate Agreement signed on 21 December, 2018, Dutch heat producers have agreed to connect an additional 50,000 homes and 30,000 utility buildings each year to district heating schemes from 2025 onwards. From 2019 to 2025 the numbers will gradually increase up to that target. The Draft Agreement states that these are feasible aspirations if a number of conditions are met, including an increase of the energy tax on gas and a lower tax on electricity and/or a subsidy covering the so-called ‘unprofitable component’ of investments in these collective heating systems. Eneco, Nuon, HVC, EnNatuurlijk and Purmerend Heat Company have commissioned CE Delft to analyse how much energy tax would have to be levied on natural gas to make this number of heat connections financially viable.