Impact assessment of a CO2 ceiling for Dutch aviation

The Civil Aviation Policy Memorandum contains the aim to limit CO₂ emissions of Dutch aviation to 2005-levels by 2030, reduce them by 50% (relative to 2005) by 2050 and to zero by 2070. In order to safeguard that the goals will be met, the Civil Aviation Policy Memorandum proposes to implement a so-called CO₂ emissions ceiling for the international aviation sector. The aim of this CO₂ ceiling is to turn the CO₂ targets into enforceable targets that have to be reached by the aviation sector. Implementation of the CO₂ ceiling would shift the responsibility of reaching the targets from the government to the sector.

The ministry of Infrastructure and Watermanagement has commissioned CE Delft to assess the impacts of different options of the CO₂ ceiling for Dutch aviation. The three main policy framework options are defined as:

1. Airport option: A national CO₂ ceiling divided over airports and embedded in airport permits, comparable to limit values for airports with regard to noise and local air quality.
2. Fuel supplier option: A fossil fuel ceiling, which limits the amount of fossil fuels which fuel suppliers are allowed to supply to aircraft by auctioning permits.
3. Airline option: A national Emissions Trading Scheme, which establishes a closed ETS for airlines departing from Dutch airports.

In the main impact assessment 54 scenarios were defined which cover a wide range of possibilities in: the capacity of Dutch airports, European measures from the European Fit for 55 proposals, national climate policy and socio-economic development. Since then, important national, European and international policies have changed. The most important one for the CO₂ ceiling is the announcement of the Dutch government to reduce the capacity at Schiphol from 500,000 to 440,000 annual aircraft movements. The update of the study covers all relevant policy changes in eight baseline scenarios.