The Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Food Security and Nature (LVVN) has commissioned Wageningen University & Research (WUR) to examine the socio-economic effects and feasibility of four scenarios for reducing nitrogen emissions. This study serves as a background report for the mobility sector accompanying the main WUR report.
In this study, the socio-economic effects and feasibility of the assumed mobility policies in four theoretical scenarios were assessed. These scenarios were developed by the Dutch Ministry of LVVN and include various combinations of policy measures aimed at reducing nitrogen emissions from the mobility sector, industry, and agriculture.
In all scenarios, the targeted reduction in NOx emissions represents a substantial additional challenge compared to existing policies. The limited timeframe in which this reduction must be achieved significantly constrains feasibility. Furthermore, the policy mechanisms required to realise the objectives in the different scenarios are highly demanding.
The socio-economic effects largely depend on the technological possibilities for replacing existing vehicles with more sustainable alternatives. For inland shipping, mobile machinery and, to a lesser extent, road transport, where such technologies are sufficiently available, the impacts are relatively limited. However, greater inequality may arise due to higher purchase costs if no compensatory policies are implemented. For passenger cars and aviation, however, a forced reduction in transport activity will also be required. This could have considerable negative socio-economic effects on the labour market, society, material prosperity, and subjective well-being.