Supplying the over 60,000 hospitality businesses in the Netherlands requires a substantial number of vehicle trips within towns and cities, particularly given the huge diversity of both businesses and suppliers. As a result, the hospitality sector accounts for a substantial share of CO2 emissions associated with urban logistics.
There are a number of options available to reduce the number of trips and the associated carbon emissions. This Outlook elaborates four scenarios to this end:
The scenarios were developed on the basis of trends and developments and validated in interviews with companies (hospitality sector and suppliers) and experts. To gain an idea of the current situation in terms of types of suppliers, number of deliveries and in-town trips and so on, the only extensive dataset available was for Amsterdam. This was used to estimate the total number of trips and CO2 emissions in 2018. If there are no changes to present urban logistics patterns, 2030 will see a substantial increase in the number of supply trips as a result of population growth, hospitality sector growth and frequency of supply. It is estimated that CO2 emissions will remain unchanged in 2030, however, with vehicles becoming cleaner as a result of European legislation. Against this baseline, the impact of the four scenarios on CO2 emissions and trips was then calculated.
The analysis shows that electrification has most impact on CO2 emissions: a 74% reduction. Although electrification does not in itself affect the number of trips, assuming a limited shift to light electric freight transport and cargo-bikes, this can lead to a 13% reduction in the number of trips.
Roy van den Berg, Bram Kin (TNO), Herman Wagter (Connekt)