Reference projection of transport CO2 emissions up to 2030 in RMP regions. Background report

Under the Dutch Climate Agreement, regional authorities are charged with contributing to CO2 emissions reduction by means of Regional Mobility Programmes, with all 30 ‘RMP regions’ setting out plans for bringing down transport greenhouse gas emissions within their region.

The main result of this study are reference projections of CO2 emissions in all 30 RMP regions for 2019 through to 2030. These describe how regional CO2 emissions are likely to develop over this period in the absence of new policy and are based on the Climate and Energy Outlook 2020 developed by the Netherlands Environment Agency PBL. Differences in regional trends are approximated via corrections to projected trends in residential population and number of workplaces in the region. The reference projections are  broken down by vehicle category (passenger cars, vans, trucks, buses, motorcycles/mopeds, mobile machinery, rail, inland shipping and recreational shipping).

The reference projections for 2019-2030 are supplemented by backcasting for 2010-2019, i.e. a comparison of ‘calculated’ CO2 emissions in each RMP region with emissions according to regional statistics. This comparison provides insight into the uncertainties in the reference projections.