This study analyses the development of the LNG market in the EU by providing a qualitative analysis of the most important drivers and barriers with respect to the use of LNG as a ship fuel; by quantitatively analysing the economic feasibility of the use of LNG in ten ports; and by developing scenarios for the uptake of LNG from 2020 to 2030. The qualitative analysis shows that amongst the main drivers of demand for LNG are environmental regulations and the price difference between LNG and other fuels. The main barriers are uncertainty about the availability of LNG in ports, about technical standards and about the second hand-price of LNG ships. The case studies show that in most cases LNG is an attractive option from the ship-owner’s perspective if the fuel price difference is larger than today, as is the case in many projections for 2020-2030. With a smaller price difference between LNG and petroleum fuels, most cost-benefit analyses have a negative outcome. The future market scenarios indicate that there will be between 2,500 and 4,000 LNG ships in the EU, using 1-5 million tonnes of LNG in the year 2030.
This company has developed a study for the European Commission, in framework of the contract nr MOVE/D1/FV-451-1/2013 – “Study on the completion of an EU framework on LNG-fuelled ships and its relevant fuel provision infrastructure” – Lot 3 : “Analysis of the LNG market development in the EU” for the European Commission. Please follow the link: http://ec.europa.eu/transport/modes/maritime/studies/doc/2015-12-lng-lot3.pdf