The Municipality of Amsterdam has pledged to reduce its CO2 emissions by 55% in 2030, more specifically the emissions associated with energy use within the city bounds and with 1990 as reference year. CE Delft was asked to assess the extent this can be achieved with the proposed policies.
According to our estimates, the achieved reduction will work out at between 21% and 55%. We would emphasize this is an estimate based on proposed policy: not all these policies have yet been officially adopted or are in force or yet being implemented, nor are there guarantees as to their success. The lower bound of the range (21% reduction in 2030) derives from the stated policies of both national government and Amsterdam Municipality. The upper bound (55% reduction in 2030) is based on proposed policies having the maximum impact, again both nationally and at the municipal level. If proposed policies are rolled out sector-by-sector at both levels, and if implementation potential is honoured by all parties concerned, we estimate a 48% reduction in 2030. If this reduction is indeed to be achieved, proposed policies will need to be finalised as soon as possible, so energy consumers (residents, companies, education and care facilities, etc.) can switch from natural gas to electricity or district heat, from fossil fuels to electric, and/or reduce their energy demand.