Report

Distance-based air passenger tax and the Caribbean part of the Kingdom of the Netherlands

CE Delft, in collaboration with Significance, was commissioned by the Dutch Ministries of Infrastructure and Water Management (Infrastructuur en Waterstaat) and Finance (Financiën) to study the effects of a distance-based air passenger tax for the Caribbean part of the Kingdom of the Netherlands. The introduction of a distance-based tax, instead of the current flat tax, will result in higher fares for passengers travelling from the Netherlands to the Caribbean part of the Kingdom of the Netherlands. Various variants of such a tax were examined, ranging from the fare structure to the method of determining the fares.

The study shows that, for the variants examined, ticket prices for direct flights from Schiphol to the Caribbean islands will increase by between € 17 and € 54. This price increase is expected to lead to a decrease in passenger numbers on these flights of approximately 1 to 4%. The number of flights from Schiphol to these islands is declining rapidly, as more travellers will opt for a journey involving a transfer or switch to a foreign airport. This will result in longer journey times for passengers and less convenience.

As part of the study, we also made a rough estimate of the economic effects for the islands resulting from the decline in passenger numbers. Direct expenditure will decrease by between € 13 million and € 37 million in 2030, depending on the tax variant. Of this decrease in spending, between € 5.4 and € 15.4 million is expected to be borne by the island residents. The remaining decline in spending is at the expense of imports to the islands. The introduction of distance-based air passenger tax will also lead to a limited decline in employment on the islands, ranging from a low rate to 0.06% on Sint Maarten to a high rate of 0.96% on Bonaire. The differences between the islands can be explained by differences in the size of the tourist sector and the proportion of Dutch tourists in the total number of visitors, among other things. The impact on gross domestic product (GDP) is also relatively small: the greatest effect is seen in Curaçao, with a decline in GDP of up to 0.6%.

In our analyses, we have not taken into account the possibility that vacant hotel rooms could be filled by tourists from other countries. This could mitigate the effects of higher air passenger tax with regard to spending, employment and GDP for the islands.

The report is part of the Government Letter of 26 June 2025 Investigation into differentiated air passenger tax.

(Vliegbelasting | Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal)

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