Economic projections for the Dutch energy-intensive industry

This report outlines the main trends projected for the Dutch energy-intensive industry between 2013 and 2030 based on: 

• current and anticipated economic trends of relevance to this industry;
• advances in energy and environmental technologies that can reduce future energy consumption and atmospheric emissions. 

To this end, the Dutch energy-intensive industry was divided into 10 sectors: 

1. Paper and graphics industry
2. Food and beverage industry
3. Refineries.
4. Petrochemicals.
5. Fertilizer industry.
6. Iron and steel industry.
7. Non-ferro basic metals.
8. Construction materials industry.
9. Greenhouse horticulture.
10. Metal products, electrical engineering, machine building and vehicle manufacture.

In consultation with the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PBL, and using a macro-economic scenario developed by that agency, projected trends in added value, output and labour demand were calculated for each sector. These estimates were based on a combination of econometric analyses of sectoral production functions, price and income elasticities, a literature analysis of anticipated demand trends, and bottom-up adjustments based on interviews.

The study yielded figures for projected trends in output, added value and employment, as well as an overview of anticipated measures to cut the energy consumption and atmospheric emissions of these sectors.