This study examines the impact of the European Commission’s “Fit for 55” policy package proposal on the Dutch aviation sector by assessing the effects of relevant elements on ticket prices and aviation CO2 emissions. In 2030, ticket prices for European destinations are estimated to increase by 7% for Full Service Carriers and 17% for Low Cost Carriers. For intercontinental destinations the price increases are limited to 1%. In 2050, the variation of ticket price increases varies between 3 and 24%. To predict the development of the Dutch aviation sector in the period 2030 to 2050, we made use of the ‘Welvaart & Leefomgeving’ (Prosperity & the Living Environment, WLO) scenarios by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.
We found that in the WLO “Low” scenario, which is characterised by low economic growth and moderate technological developments, the “Fit for 55” proposals would lead to reduced demand due to increased ticket prices and hence a lower number of passengers travelling through Dutch airports. In the WLO ‘High’ scenario, characterised by high economic growth and fast technological developments, the price increases would also lead to lower demand, but the demand would still surpass the capacity limits of Dutch airports. Therefore, in this scenario, the number of passengers or flights is not reduced as a consequence of the “Fit for 55” package.
In terms of CO2 emissions, we found that by 2030 the impact of the “Fit for 55” package is unlikely to be sufficient to meet the target of the Aviation Policy Memorandum 2020-2050 (aviation emissions at 2005 level). By 2050, emissions are estimated to be at the level of the Aviation Policy Memorandum target (50% of 2005 emissions), especially in the WLO “Low” scenario, but there are significant uncertainties.
Parliamentary letter on research into the impact of the ‘Fit for 55’ package on aviation (Dutch).