Energy scenarios for 2030

In the context of agreements for the ‘Energy deal for sustainable growth’, grid operators Netbeheer Nederland commissioned CE Delft to develop five scenarios for the Dutch energy supply in 2030. These scenarios, drawn up In collaboration with DNV GL by means of ‘backcasting’, differ in the amount of decentralized production, share of renewables and CO2 emissions cuts. In each scenario the consequences for all elements of the energy system were calculated: demand for power, heat and transport. Besides physical aspects like grid capacities, installed capacity and required energy savings, financial differences between the scenarios were also considered.

The study, which represents an initial step towards facilitating the future energy supply, leads to a number of general conclusions about supply trends which grid operators and other stakeholders need to reckon with in the coming decades. These can be summarized in eleven recommendations for further study:

  1. Develop robust regulations on energy efficiency.
  2. Develop regulations and market mechanisms that permit flexibility of demand and production.
  3. Seek options for cheap(er) energy storage systems and optimize use of storage, in addition to capping of solar PV and joint infrastructure use.
  4. Develop a market model and market rules that permit a good mix with more renewables and harmonize with policies and regulatory frameworks in neighbouring countries.
  5. Develop a new strategy to guarantee security of supply and new business models for investment in conventional and renewable generating technologies.
  6. Develop local deliberation processes for reinvestment in low-pressure gas grids.
  7. Develop new business models for investment in heat grids.
  8. Closely follow developments in the transport sector for suitable matching of interaction with the electricity sector.
  9. Develop a market for sustainable biomass.
  10. Debate the pros and cons of flexible tariff schemes.
  11. Develop funding mechanisms for facilitating the transition.