The Ministry of Climate and Green Growth is currently exploring the desirability of introducing a price guarantee for district heating networks. Such a price guarantee would compensate residents in cases where district heating is more expensive than the available alternative, thereby ensuring the affordability of heat for the final consumer.
CE Delft has provided an initial estimate of the potential financial implications of such a price guarantee.
The required subsidy has been calculated based on end-user costs, using the TNO end-user cost dashboard. The cost-based tariffs for district heating networks have been derived from the results of the 2025 Start Analysis.
For new district heating networks, the total subsidy requirement for the period 2028 to 2037 is provisionally estimated at € 140 million. By 2037, the annual subsidy requirement for new networks is expected to be € 21 million. If the heat pump is used as the reference instead of the gas boiler, the annual subsidy requirement in 2037 falls to € 0.3 million, with the cumulative subsidy requirement dropping to approximately € 2.2 million. However, a small increase or decrease in district heating tariffs could significantly increase or reduce the total subsidy requirement.
We recommend further refining this initial estimate by examining the impact of ramp-up periods and various pricing scenarios.
The subsidy requirement for existing district heating networks is currently difficult to determine due to a lack of reliable cost data. We advise further investigation into the subsidy requirement for existing networks once the ACM has gained more insight into the actual cost components of these networks.
This report is an annex to a letter sent to the House of Representatives on 10 October (only available in Dutch).