Report

Impact Assessment of the National Citizens’ Assembly on Climate Advice

The National Citizens’ Assembly on Climate has issued its advice to the Cabinet and the House of Representatives on the following question:

How can we, as the Netherlands, eat, use goods and travel in ways that are better for the climate?

Members of the citizens’ assembly worked together to develop 23 recommendations. Thirteen of these were adopted with more than 75% support. More detail on the recommendations and the assembly process can be found in the assembly’s advisory report.

The independent research institute CE Delft was commissioned to assess all 23 recommendations in terms of their impact on CO₂ emissions reduction, economic effects and social effects. This report describes the methodology and presents our conclusions and recommendations. The core result of the analysis are the 23 factsheets, which contain the detailed descriptions, underlying analyses and literature sources. Note that this is a high-level impact analysis.

Many of the recommendations can deliver climate benefits in the order of several megatonnes of CO₂ reduction and can contribute meaningfully to the national climate targets. If all 23 recommendations were to be implemented, the total reduction would amount to approximately 10-15% of the Netherlands’ 2024 emissions (14 to 21 Mt CO₂ per year).

If only the 13 recommendations with more than 75% support were implemented, the reduction would amount to 5 to 17 Mt CO₂ per year (4% to 12% of the Netherlands’ emissions).

Some recommendations would result in costs savings, while most would involve costs for either citizens or the government. None of the recommendations appears to be extremely expensive, but the exact costs and the distribution of these costs strongly depends on the specific design. Many recommendations follow the ‘polluter pays’ principle: favourable for those who pollute less, more expensive for those who pollute more (e.g. buy many goods or travel by air frequently, etc). Many recommendations would also reduce emissions of substances harmful to health (including nitrogen and particulate matter) and would benefit nature and biodiversity.