CE Delft, in collaboration with Significance, was commissioned by the Dutch Ministries of Infrastructure and Water Management (Infrastructuur en Waterstaat) and Finance (Financiën) to study the impact of a distance-based air passenger tax for the Netherlands. This tax would replace the flat-rate air passenger tax currently levied on all passengers departing from airports located in the Netherlands. In this study, we examined five different variants that differ in terms of the fare structure and the types of passengers to whom the tax will apply (tax for transfer passengers or no tax for transfer passengers). All variants are designed in such a way that they will generate € 257 million (price level 2025) in extra revenue by 2027.
The main impact of introducing a distance-based air passenger tax is:
In all variants, the targeted revenue of € 257 million in 2027 will be achieved. In all variants, part of this tax revenue comes from skimming the scarcity profits of airlines. However, the extent of this impact varies greatly depending on the variant.
There will be a shift from long-haul flights to short-haul flights, reducing the climate impact of aviation by 1 to 3% of Dutch aviation emissions (approx. 41 Mton CO2-eq. in 2030).
The total decline in passenger numbers is limited: 0.1 to 0.7% in 2030. This relatively limited decline is mainly due to the acute capacity restrictions at the largest Dutch airports, as a result of which the demand for aviation that is lost due to the introduction of the distance-based air passenger tax is largely offset by latent demand for aviation.
There is no significant impact on the number of flights. Because demand for flights at most Dutch airports exceeds capacity, the decline in demand resulting from the introduction of distance-based air passenger tax will be fully offset by latent demand, meaning that the number of flights will remain unchanged. However, there is a shift from longer-haul flights to shorter-haul flights.
The impact on grid quality and the broader economic impact is very limited.
The report is part of the Government Letter of 26 June 2025 Investigation into differentiated air passenger tax.
(Vliegbelasting | Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal)