From 2027, households and businesses will face higher energy and fuel prices as a result of the new European Emissions Trading System (ETS2). At the request of the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, CE Delft investigated which groups are most vulnerable to these changes. The findings serve as input for the Dutch Social Climate Plan within the EU-wide Social Climate Fund (SCF).
Households experiencing energy and transport povertyOur research shows that ETS2 will lead to increased costs for natural gas, petrol, and diesel. As a result, an estimated additional 24,000 households will fall into energy poverty by 2030. Transport poverty is also expected to rise. Households with a low income (below 130% of the social minimum) and those who own a fossil-fuel-powered vehicle are particularly vulnerable to rising fuel prices. In addition, approximately 466,000 financially car-less households will experience further restrictions in their mobility.
Micro-enterprisesFor micro-enterprises—businesses with fewer than ten employees—indicators have been developed to provide insight into their vulnerability. However, for many of these indicators, no nationwide data is available for the data analysis in this study. From the data that is available, the hospitality sector appears particularly vulnerable to rising energy prices, followed by small industrial businesses such as bakeries. In the transport sector, self-employed drivers are expected to be hit the hardest.