At the request of Overijssel provincial executive CE Delft has carried out an interim review of the programme ‘New Energy for Overijssel 2017-2023’, assessing achievements to date, the effectiveness of provincial efforts and the quality of partnerships. CE Delft concludes that the 20% renewable energy target (20.2 PJ) in 2023 will not be secured, with the measures in place likely to achieve only 14.5% (lower bound) to 17.8% (upper bound). Associated C02 emissions cuts will be about 1.4-1.5 Mt. In terms of PJ, the province will be between 2.7 and 6 PJ behind its target of 20.2 PJ renewables.
It should be stressed that there is a considerable margin of uncertainty in CE Delft’s estimates. The cited range derives from combining the ‘autonomous trend’ with a database of projects in the province, estimating the likelihood of each being successfully rolled out. The upper bound will only be realized if all conditions work out for the best. One major factor in achieving the target is a shortage of capacity for hooking up the renewables.
The review took place prior to the Corona-crisis. At the request of the provincial executive, CE Delft has added some reflections on the consequences of the Corona virus (and measures to control it) for both achieving the target and the economic impact of the investment proposal.