National renewable energy target. Impact of allocation keys on the EU target for the Netherlands

The European Commission, the European Council and the European Parliament are currently debating revision of the European Renewable Energy directive and, in particular, European and national renewable energy targets. The European Parliament has proposed that the EU target should be at least 35% in 2030, with national targets being set that come into force if national plans prove insufficient for achieving the European target. The original proposal for revising the European directive had only a binding target at the European level: 27%.

To translate the European renewable energy target into national targets for each member state several different allocation keys have been proposed, based on gross domestic product, renewable energy potential and interconnectivity. Which of these is ultimately adopted can have a major impact on the national targets.

This study crunches the numbers on the effect of different European targets and allocation keys on the national renewable energy target for the Netherlands, under various assumptions on energy efficiency.