Pathways to Climate-Neutral EU Fisheries by 2050

How can the EU fisheries sector achieve climate neutrality by 2050, while remaining economically viable and socially fair? Our study investigates this question by analysing emissions across the EU fishing fleet and modelling transition pathways towards climate neutrality in 2050 based on technological feasibility, cost-effectiveness, and sector-specific constraints. This study supports the European Commission’s upcoming roadmap for the energy transition in fisheries and aquaculture by identifying recommendations for action. The study can be accessed here.

What is analysed
The study combines fleet data of the fisheries with techno-economic modelling to assess:

• fossil fuel use and GHG emissions across small-scale coastal, large-scale, and distant water fleets and their possible transition paths;
• six future scenarios ranging from business-as-usual to innovative, zero-carbon pathways;
• investment needs, costs, and cost-effectiveness of emissions reduction measures;
• environmental, economic, and social impacts of the transition. 

Key findings

• without targeted policies, emissions from the fisheries fleet are expected to decline by 4% by 2050 compared to today;
• energy-efficiency measures alone can only cut emissions of the fleet by around 30% at most, making alternative fuels key in the transition;
• carbon-intensity limits and timely fleet renewal are essential to achieve climate neutrality;
• regardless of the pathway chosen to reach climate neutrality in 2050, the transition entails substantial additional costs;
• a ‘progressively stricter carbon limit’ pathway is the most balanced option, reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 with a cumulative costs of € 19.3 billion. 

Next steps
The study highlights three pillars for a successful transition:

1. Implement energy efficiency across existing and new vessels.
2. Start fleet renewal early to enable the uptake of low- and zero-carbon technologies.
3. Switch fuels at the right pace, accelerating after 2040 as technologies mature.

To enable this, a policy package is needed that combining carbon-intensity standards, investment support, skills development, infrastructure rollout, and regulatory clarity, while ensuring a just transition for fishers and coastal communities.