Review of the Impact Assessment for a 2030 climate and energy policy framework

On January 22, 2014 the European Commission (EC) published its proposal for a 2030 framework for climate and energy policies in Europe. This document is to serve as the basis for negotiations for deciding on the new climate targets for 2030. The European Climate Foundation asked CE Delft to review the Impact Assessment underpinning the Commission’s proposal. This Impact Assessment, in which seven potential policy options are compared with the PRIMES 2013 Reference Scenario, has been analysed with respect to the methods employed, coverage of impacts, coverage of scenarios and clarity for policy-makers to decide on the formulation of the 2030 framework. Our analysis indicates that the highest GHG emission reduction scenario: –a 45% reduction in 2030 compared with 1990, can be regarded as “optimal” from a welfare-economic perspective. In terms of policy efforts, this scenario was also identified as the most cost-effective in the context of the 2050 Low Carbon Roadmap,  moreover. We therefore believe it would be worthwhile for the Commission to consider additional scenarios in their Impact Assessment that will yield larger GHG reductions and at the same time still make sense economically.