The 2022 gas crisis exposed Europe’s vulnerability stemming from its heavy reliance on imported gas. Although security of supply is increasingly ‘for sale’ thanks to the globally expanding LNG market, the main risk has shifted towards affordability: price spikes can cause tens of billions of euros in societal damage. In extreme cases – such as the simultaneous sabotage of gas pipelines from Norway – physical security of supply could also be threatened.
In this report, CE Delft and energy analyst Jilles van den Beukel analyse how the security of supply and affordability of gas can be safeguarded in the coming years.
The study explores possible measures, such as maintaining ample LNG import capacity and careful monitoring of gas storage fill levels. Common policy proposals, including joint gas purchasing, rigidly maintained storage fill requirements, or price caps, prove to be of limited effectiveness or potentially market-distorting.
A promising option is the establishment of a strategic cushion gas reserve: the temporary withdrawal of part of the cushion gas from existing storage facilities under extreme market conditions. This provides a relatively low-cost insurance against economic damage in the event of future gas crises and can also help preserve critical infrastructure such as gas storage sites.
The study concludes that a combination of market mechanisms, adequate LNG import capacity, and strategic cushion gas reserves represents the most future-proof pathway for the Netherlands and the European Union.