Heat networks play an important role in achieving the 2030 and 2050 CO2 reduction targets set out in the Climate Agreement. However, the development of heat network connections is rapidly stalling. Not only does this stagnation threaten the energy transition, it also increases the burden on the electricity grid.
This study examines the importance and urgency of realising heat network connections. This is achieved through a techno-economic substantiation of the social added value of heat networks in 2040.
The study compares three scenarios in which the realised CO2 reduction is the same. All scenarios achieve the same emission reduction, but the costs and technical implications differ significantly. The all-electric and hybrid solutions increase electricity use by 6 PJ per year and peak demand on cold days by around 1 GW, requiring significant investments in grid reinforcement and generation capacity. Failure to realise the intended heat networks will lead to a 16% increase in annual national costs by 2040 (€ 160 million extra). Assuming linear growth in heat network connections, the total additional national costs between 2025 and 2040 are over € 1.6 billion.