Report

Bunker sales in the Netherlands of international shipping. Outlook for 2030, 2035 and 2040

In its Climate and Energy Outlook (Klimaat- en Energieverkenning, KEV 2024), the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving) reports annually on climate and energy policy in the Netherlands and its expected effects.

As input for the Climate and Energy Outlook 2024, the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency asked CE Delft to study the expected bunker sales in the Netherlands from international ocean shipping for the years 2030 and 2035 with a look-through approach towards 2040, taking into account the policy as it applied as of 1 May 2024. For shipping, these include the FuelEU Maritime Regulation (FuelEU Zeevaart Verordening), the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) directives and the intended Dutch implementation of the Renewable Energy Directive (Herziene Richtlijn Hernieuwbare Energie, RED III). For future bunker sales, we have used six possible scenarios that differ in terms of energy demand (high, medium, low) and type of fuel use in order to comply with the adopted EU policy on making shipping more sustainable and the intended Dutch implementation of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III).

Finally, an estimate was also made of the amount of electricity required in the Netherlands to meet the shore power obligation imposed by FuelEU and the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (Infrastructuurverordening Aternatieve Brandstoffen, AFIR) in 2030, 2035 and 2040.

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