For the Municipality of Arnhem, we have produced a forecast of greenhouse gas emissions up to and including 2050 using the CEGEM model. In addition, we provide advice on appropriate interim targets and possible supplementary policy measures.
Based on current European, national and municipal policies, the Municipality of Arnhem will achieve a 46% emissions reduction by 2030 compared to 2017 levels. The current target of a 61% reduction by 2030 appears to be unachievable. As there is insufficient time to implement major measures before 2030, we recommend revising the 2030 target from 61% to 46%.
For the period 2030-2050, we recommend adopting a linear reduction trajectory to net zero, with interim targets of 60% in 2035 and 73% in 2040 compared to 2017 levels. These targets are achievable by gradually replacing natural gas in the built environment with a zero-emissions alternative.