CE Delft, together with Pondera, conducted a study on the environmental impact of nuclear energy in the energy mix. The aim of this study is to provide strategic-level insight into the differences in environmental effects of a climate-neutral energy system with different shares of nuclear energy in the mix of different energy sources.
To this end, CE Delft modelled the 2050 energy mix using four scenarios for the share of nuclear energy. The starting point is a climate-neutral energy system in the Netherlands in 2050. An estimate was also made of the other components required for a climate-neutral energy system, such as renewable generation from wind turbines and solar panels, and flexible resources to balance electricity supply and demand (such as batteries, electrolysers and dispatchable power plants). There is no single alternative that applies per nuclear energy scenario; therefore, three variations were developed within each scenario to show how a higher or lower share of nuclear energy would be compensated.
In all scenarios, electricity demand increases significantly compared to today. As a result, regardless of the extent to which nuclear energy is deployed, a substantial expansion of wind and solar capacity, batteries, electrolysis and hydrogen storage is required. In the scenario with the highest share of nuclear energy, around 10% of electricity production is supplied by nuclear.
Since each scenario requires a significant increase of renewable energy and flexible resources, there are no major differences in the potential environmental impacts between the scenarios examined. None of the scenarios is expected to be unfeasible in advance. However, particular attention should be given to the use of cooling water and potential ecological impacts.