Macro-economic impacts of transition policy in the urban environment

This study, carried out at the request of TKI-EnerGO, analyses the macro-economic impacts of transition policy in the urban environment on employment, added value (GDP) and national trade balance. CE Delft and DNV GL had already elaborated a series of transition scenarios for the Netherlands as a whole for the Association of Energy Network Operators in the Netherlands (Netbeheer Nederland). The present study considers the economic effects for the country of a particular transition scenario involving a 57% reduction in CO2 emissions and a 26% share of renewables by the year 2030. The economic effects were calculated on the basis of the investments in the built environment required as part of the overall reduction envisaged in this scenario and quantified using the E3ME model. This allowed not only the direct effects on the construction industry to be included, but also indirect effects on other sectors.

In the transition scenario an additional € 2.3 billion per year is invested in heat pumps, waste heat utilization and measures to reduce heat and power consumption in the urban environment. Over the period 2013-2030 this leads to around 73 PJ annual savings on building-related (primary) energy use, a gross average increase of 24,000 man-years employment, and average improvements of 1.7% in the trade balance and 0.7% in GDP. The decrease in building-related energy consumption is projected to reduce energy imports by around € 20 billion over the period 2013-2030, thus reducing the country’s energy dependence.