Report

Prosumer scenarios for the EU and other PROSEU results

PROSEU project
CE Delft was one of eleven partners from seven European countries collaborating over 2018–2021 on PROSEU, an EU-funded project aimed at mainstreaming the phenomenon of renewable energy prosumers in the European Energy Union, i.e. entities both producing and consuming RE. PROSEU’s research was focused on RE prosumer collectives and investigated new business models, market regulations, social aspects of prosumerism, technology scenarios and energy policies across Europe. The project has resulted in numerous reports and publications; all the project deliverables are available at https://proseu.eu.

Role of CE Delft in PROSEU
Within this project CE Delft worked on several tasks, most notably on the following:

The main deliverable in which CE Delft was involved is the report on local, national and EU scenarios for prosumers, which focused on European prosumers’ technical potential. Based on our previous prosumer modelling work, we developed the CEPROM model to assess this potential, calculating future electricity and heat demand, potential prosumer production capacities and energy outputs and the potential degree of prosumer self-sufficiency under three scenarios. More about this work below.

We also contributed to the technical recommendations for prosumer communities, an extensive survey of prosumers (resulting in this report) and development of an up-to-date database of the key characteristics of prosumer technologies. We worked on several living labs, furthermore, supporting practical prosumer projects. In that context we assessed the CO2 footprint of the Dutch prosumer project Aardehuis Olst; the results can be found here.

Prosumer scenarios for the EU
The CEPROM model considers three types of prosumer: individual households, collectives and the tertiary sector, and includes a wide range of electricity and heating/cooling technologies. It considers three scenarios:

  • Reference: ‘business as usual’.
  • Maximum Renewables: prosumers generate maximum RE, with no energy storage, production taken equal to technical potential and no social or financial constraints.
  • Maximum Self-Sufficiency: as the previous scenario, but with energy storage to increase self-consumption.

The Reference scenario yields results for 2015, 2030 and 2050, the other two for 2030 and 2050 only.

Results
The results of our study on technical potential are included in the PROSEU report on local, national and EU scenarios for prosumers mentioned above, together with modelling results for local or regional prosumers carried out by two other partners. To make the EU-level results more accessible a separate report was also drafted, focusing only on our part of the research. There is also an Excel spreadsheet showing all the CEPROM scenario outcomes. Both are downloadable from the website.

The model shows that in 2050 up to 89% of household electricity demand can be auto-generated. Solar PV power production has greatest growth potential, especially in Southern Europe. Wind turbines owned by prosumer collectives have major potential in countries with enough space around towns and cities and sufficient wind power density. The total power demand of households and residential buildings increases significantly in the two prosumer scenarios, owing to greater use of electric heating technologies (mostly heat pumps) and electric vehicles, while heating and cooling demand remains fairly constant over time in the various scenarios.

The CEPROM model is an update of the model used in CE Delft’s 2016 study ‘The potential of energy citizens in the European Union’, with heat technologies added, data updated and several changes to the modelling methodology and scope.