Under current scenarios, future demand for sustainable carbon from aviation, shipping and other sectors in the Netherlands may significantly exceed its availability.
Sustainable carbon is expected to become a crucial resource in the energy transition, particularly for international aviation and shipping. In these sectors, sustainable carbon serves two key functions: as an essential feedstock for the production of sustainable e-fuels, and as a means to enable carbon removal to limit or reduce global warming and compensate residual fossil emissions.
This study describes the relevant policy context and estimates potential demand for sustainable carbon from aviation and shipping in the Netherlands, for both e-fuel production and carbon removal. It compares this demand with the potential supply of sustainable carbon in the Netherlands, taking into account future demand from other sectors.
The analysis identifies significant policy and accounting gaps. EU and national policies that incentivise the deployment of CDR to compensate for residual emissions remain limited. In addition, various accounting challenges remain, mainly because of different approaches at UNFCCC, ICAO/IMO and EU level. Various policy options were identified to address these challenges and to incentivise the use of CDR in aviation and shipping.
The report was commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management.