In the Dutch province of Zeeland, how might energy demand develop from 2020 to 2030 to 2050 and how could this energy be supplied? Can today’s energy infrastructure facilitate these developments and what challenges does Zeeland face?
In this systems study four provincial scenarios were drawn up, not necessarily as realistic or desirable blueprints but to establish extremes as to potential demands on the infrastructure. In practice a mix of elements from all four scenarios is more likely. The study is a specific elaboration for Zeeland of two earlier studies: ‘Grid for the Future’ (CE Delft, 2017a) and ‘Infrastructure Outlook’ (Gasunie TenneT, 2019), and is closely related to the ‘CUST’ study (Royal HaskoningDHV; M-tech; sitech; CE Delft, 2019).
Each scenario takes a different point of departure in terms of steering mechanism for the energy transition: Regional Steering, National Steering, International Steering and Generic Steering. In Regional Steering, the focus is on local generation, use of local heat sources, electrification and energy efficiency. National Steering is centred on using offshore wind power to drive a hydrogen economy. Given today’s industrial base, with 48 PJ annual hydrogen consumption, Zeeland could see marked growth of demand for green hydrogen. International Steering is built around imported hydrogen and biogas. Generic Steering proceeds from use of technology-neutral policies to induce CO2 emission cuts in the market, resulting in a mix of natural gas with CCS, electrification, use of heat and imports of biomass. The study quantifies the consequences of each scenario for the provincial energy infrastructure.