Electrification and demand profile, 2030. Report on TenneT E-Top expert trajectory

Based on discussions at the 2019 E-Top, TenneT identified two major themes: ‘Flexibility and heat in the built environment’ and ‘Electrification and future demand profile’. For both themes a working party was set up to examine the topic in greater depth as input to the 2020 E-Top.

The working party on Electrification began by elaborating the options for electrification in three sectors: the built environment, mobility and industry. The focus was on developments through to 2030, looking further ahead to 2050 where deemed useful. The working party went beyond many current studies on electrification. CE Delft collaborated with expert panels to build up a robust picture of electrification.

Electrifying energy demand may be a key route to reducing CO2 emissions. Over the next decade it may increase annual electricity demand by 15 to 68 TWh, across a range of subsectors. Calculations were grounded in the Dutch national Climate Agreement, which has 2030 as its horizon. The minimum and maximum potential were established based on costs, benefits and barriers identified. While electrification will mean a major surge in demand, this will to some extent be countered by efficiency improvements in all sectors. In the Climate Agreement scenario, total demand grows by around 25 TWh (+21%) relative to 122 TWh in 2018.