Onshore renewable generation. Possible development paths towards 2040

In recent years, onshore renewable energy production has increased significantly, meaning that onshore solar and wind energy now constitute a significant share of the energy mix. However, the business case for onshore renewable generation is under pressure, and grid congestion is occurring in an increasing number of locations due to the return of renewable generation at times when electricity supply does not match demand. These circumstances make the further growth of onshore renewable generation uncertain. Substantially more onshore renewable generation will be required for a climate-neutral energy system and greater energy independence. In this study, we have analysed potential development pathways for onshore solar and wind energy towards 2040. To this end, we have mapped out the trade-offs for the renewable generation challenge in 2040 and outlined how this challenge can be met.

In this study, we arrive at six main recommendations:

1. Prioritse the continued growth of onshore renewable generation.
2. Focus on a no-regrets policy for onshore renewable generation and make timely decisions regarding other options.
3. Focus on the efficient grid integration of onshore renewable generation to enable further growth despite grid congestion.
4. Further growth of onshore renewable energy requires an explicit link with spatial development strategies at both national and regional levels.
5. The need for subsidies to ensure a profitable business case and to reduce risks remains.
6. Conduct a detailed regional elaboration of the development of onshore renewable generation.

The study is part of the Parliamentary document Strengthening of decentralized developments in the energy system | Parliamentary Document | Rijksoverheid.nl of April 13, 2026 (only available in Dutch).