As a result of the revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED III), the Dutch government is changing the Renewable Energy for Transport system. From 2026 onwards, the focus will shift from renewable energy volumes to greenhouse gas emissions reduction (across the entire chain; ‘well-to-wheel’). The current tradable renewable fuel units (HBEs) will be replaced by Emission Reduction Units (EREs). In addition, separate CO₂ reduction obligations will be introduced for different transport modalities.
The Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management and the Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO) have commissioned CE Delft to assess the effects of the revised Renewable Energy for Transport system (the ERE system) on the deployment of renewable energy and on fuel pump prices, using a calculation model.
The study results show that the increased use of renewable energy under the ERE system leads to higher additional costs (the difference between the prices of renewable energy carriers and the fossil fuels they replace) for fuel suppliers. The impact of the ERE system on pump prices is smaller than the impact on these additional costs, because the extra costs are spread over the total energy volume of pump fuels sold, and these costs are only one of several components of the pump price.
There is considerable uncertainty about the future development of costs and market factors in the fuel sector. The study is based on the planned and published policy choices as known in January 2025. It is important to interpret the research and its outcomes within the simplified framework and assumptions of the model, and not to consider them as a direct prediction of reality. The calculation model developed by CE Delft can be used by RVO in the future to evaluate changing policy decisions.
The CE Delft report was included with the fourth progress letter (only available in Dutch) on the implementation of RED III for transport, sent on 25 April 2025.